Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.003706 0.004052 0.004422 0.004849 0.005328 0.005852 0.006468
2025-11-16 0.003092 0.003570 0.004118 0.004797 0.005623 0.006602 0.007862
2025-11-23 0.002705 0.003235 0.003871 0.004699 0.005760 0.007093 0.008924
2025-11-30 0.002490 0.003065 0.003779 0.004748 0.006048 0.007766 0.010263
2025-12-07 0.002361 0.002980 0.003775 0.004892 0.006454 0.008617 0.011937
2025-12-14 0.002180 0.002806 0.003632 0.004827 0.006557 0.009045 0.013045
2025-12-21 0.002015 0.002638 0.003478 0.004725 0.006586 0.009357 0.014000
2025-12-28 0.001889 0.002513 0.003371 0.004676 0.006679 0.009764 0.015148
2026-01-04 0.001803 0.002436 0.003324 0.004707 0.006891 0.010370 0.016705
2026-01-11 0.001701 0.002327 0.003222 0.004644 0.006947 0.010724 0.017861
2026-01-18 0.001615 0.002237 0.003140 0.004604 0.007030 0.011125 0.019156
2026-01-25 0.001531 0.002144 0.003048 0.004538 0.007063 0.011441 0.020327
2026-02-01 0.001468 0.002081 0.003001 0.004550 0.007241 0.012056 0.022245
2026-02-08 0.001394 0.002000 0.002922 0.004502 0.007314 0.012495 0.023895
2026-02-15 0.001318 0.001909 0.002821 0.004411 0.007299 0.012760 0.025212
2026-02-22 0.001277 0.001871 0.002803 0.004457 0.007536 0.013546 0.027854
2026-03-01 0.001256 0.001864 0.002832 0.004590 0.007949 0.014739 0.031719
2026-03-08 0.001201 0.001797 0.002759 0.004530 0.007983 0.015142 0.033704
2026-03-15 0.001143 0.001723 0.002670 0.004436 0.007939 0.015369 0.035279
2026-03-22 0.001097 0.001668 0.002609 0.004390 0.007988 0.015808 0.037529
2026-03-29 0.001068 0.001638 0.002590 0.004419 0.008194 0.016630 0.041065
2026-04-05 0.001026 0.001585 0.002527 0.004361 0.008210 0.017008 0.043381
2026-04-12 0.000990 0.001540 0.002477 0.004323 0.008265 0.017489 0.046140